Climate change in Tanzania

By Lulu George,

Tanzania’s climate ranges from tropical to temperate, with altitudinal variation being responsible for the extremes.

What is climate change?

The Earth’s climate is driven by a continuous flow of energy from the sun. Heat energy from the sun passes through the Earth’s atmosphere and warms the Earth’s surface.

As the temperature increases, the Earth sends heat energy (infrared radiation) back into the atmosphere. Some of this heat is absorbed by gases in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) , water vapour, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and  halocarbons.

When you change the climate you change everything

The climate plays such a major part in our planet's environmental system that even minor changes have impacts that are large and complex.

Climate change affects people and nature in countless ways, and it often increases existing threats that have already put pressure on the environment.

But it is not a problem which has appeared overnight – it's 30 years since scientists first alerted the world to the dangers of climate change.

How much longer are we going to allow it to continue?

The change in nature has serious implications for people and our economic system. The insurance industry puts potential economic damage caused by global warming impacts at hundreds of billions of dollars each year.

                                              Mount Kilimanjaro

More than 80% of the population of Tanzania relies directly on agriculture for their livelihoods; a 10% reduction in rainfall would in effect make most of Tanzania unsuitable for Maize.’

(source :World Bank, 2002)

Under climate change most of Tanzania’s 338,000 km² forests would shift towards drier regimes from subtropical forest and woodland to tropical dry forest and woodland.’

Source-Tanzania Initial National Communication, 2003

What does climate change means in Tanzania

Temperature: The most detailed analysis has been carried out by the OECD using separate modals (MAGICC / SCENGEN). All the projections expect a temperature rise of 2.2º C by 2100, with higher increases (2.6ºC) in June, July and August. According to meteorological data, monthly temperatures over the last thirty years are already showing an upward trend (NAPA, 2007)

The 2007 Tanzania’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) estimates that projected temperature and rainfall changes could decrease the average annual maize yield by 33%. Maize is a staple crop in Tanznia.

Rainfall: The average precipitation is 1,042mm and temperatures range between 17C – 27 C. Although localised rainfall is complex, the country has two distinct regimes: 1) Bi-modal in northern Tanzania, with long rains between March – May (Masika) and short rains between October – December (Vuli); and 2) a single rainfall between November – April in the south of the country.

Some areas of northern Tanzania will get wetter (between 5% - 45% wetter), whilst others, especially in the south will experience severe reductions in rainfall (up to 10%). This change in rainfall would make the central, western and southern part of the country unsustainable for agricultural production (Development and Climate Change in Tanzania: Focus on Mount Kilimanjaro). NAPA (2007) reports that the most recent and common rainfall trend in Tanzania is “a greater variability in cycles.”

Biodiversity: NAPA (2007) predicts that changing climatic patterns in Tanzania, such as increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns, will have strong impacts on wildlife in the country. Species migratory patterns will likely change, pests and diseases may increase, and strain for resources will become more prominent. Already, 14 species of dry country birds have responded to a drying climate and have expanded their range.

Health: Malaria, which is responsible for the most deaths in Tanzania, is already being observed in places where its prevalence is traditionally very low. The 2007 NAPA reports, “As a result of change in temperature and rainfall regimes, malaria epidemic has been observed to extend to some parts of Tanga, Kilimanjaro and Arusha highlands (non-traditional malaria areas) where the disease was not prevalent. As more areas receive more rains, it will in turn attract more across the country.”

What can we do to limit these impacts?

We need to stay below 2°C...

To avoid dangerous climate change the global temperature should not get any more than 2°C (3.4°F) warmer than it was at pre-industrial times (around 1800).

It has already been shown that 2°C would bring with it a set of devastating impacts to coral reefs, arctic systems and local communities. The Earth cannot afford to go above this.

...and this means rapidly cutting greenhouse gas emissions far below current levels.

We must start reducing emissions now and stay on a low emissions track to avoid loading the atmosphere with too much CO2. In scientific terms this means staying well below a CO2 concentration level of 450ppm (parts per million) in the atmosphere

Take Action

Learn about changes you can make at home and at work to reduce climate impacts.